sizing up sweet sixteen

Sweet 16 log5

03.18.12

Hot off the presses, we have the log5 analysis for the 16 remaining teams. These teams comprised 81% of the title-winning chances before the tourney started, up from 69% last season, indicating that this year’s group was more expected than last season’s. (Pre-tournament chances are indicated in the ‘Prev’ column.) Michigan State received nearly 6% of the 19% the losers left behind, primarily due to surviving the gauntlet that was their round-of-32 game.
This obviously doesn’t account for injuries, but I have a feeling UNC’s chances aren’t that far off. They have the enormous benefit of getting to play the weakest team remaining in the field in their first game. Beating Ohio is not certain, of course, but just getting to play them is the best-case scenario if you’re trying to figure out how to play basketball without a point guard.

Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ   Prev    1 in…
 1S  Kentucky    71.7   56.9   32.8   20.5   19.7    5
 2E  Ohio St.    82.9   52.7   31.9   19.8   19.3    5
 1W  Michigan St 76.4   54.8   33.8   18.0   12.4    6
2MW  Kansas      80.4   46.3   24.4   11.0    9.1    9
1MW  N. Carolina 84.9   45.5   22.8    9.8    6.6    10
 4E  Wisconsin   52.5   23.0   11.3    5.6    4.2    18
 1E  Syracuse    47.5   19.8    9.3    4.4    4.4    23
 7W  Florida     52.9   19.0    7.8    2.6    0.5    39
 4S  Indiana     28.3   17.2    6.1    2.5    1.7    40
 3S  Baylor      72.6   21.9    6.9    2.4    1.7    41
 3W  Marquette   47.1   15.8    6.0    1.8    0.9    54
 4W  Louisville  23.6   10.4    3.5    1.0    0.5    105
 6E  Cincinnati  17.1    4.5    1.2    0.3    0.2    323
11MW N.C. State  19.6    5.3    1.2    0.2    0.1    470
10S  Xavier      27.4    4.0    0.6    0.1    0.04   946
13MW Ohio        15.1    2.9    0.5    0.06   0.01   1720

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